17 Mar

Relationship between desire to migrate and trust in government

Recently Armenian political figure Vartan Oskanian joined Twitter. He tweeted a speech that he gave where  he claimed that lack of trust in government is a cause of migration in Armenia.

Thanks to him for giving me a hypothesis to test!

Using the preliminary 2011 Caucasus Barometer, I looked at the relationship between desire to temporarily or permanently migrate and trust in government. And guess what? Oskanian is right!

For those that want to short-term migrate, they are statistically significantly less likely to trust these institutions than those that do not want to short-term migrate:

education system, army, courts, parliament, president, media, and the church.

Desire to short-term migrate had no effect on trust in these institutions:

healthcare, banks, NGOs, Prime Minster, police, local government, ombudsman, EU, and UN.

And for those that are interested in permanently migrating, it gets even more interesting.

Those with a desire to permanently migrate were statistically significantly less trusting in these institutions:

healthcare system, banks, education system, army, court system, NGOs, parliament, Prime Minister, president, police, media, local government, church, and ombudsman.

There was no impact on trust in the EU or UN.

So, yeah… this is interesting!

For more on who wants to migrate, check this out from 2010. Also I have a paper on trust in the government in Armenia here.

06 Jul

Migration Crisis in the Caucasus

Is there a “migration crisis” in the Caucasus?

Maybe! There seems to be an increase in interest in migration in Armenia and in Azerbaijan and Georgia, while interest is high, it remains relatively stable.

Based on the Caucasus Barometer, 40% of Georgians, half of Azerbaijanis, and 59% of Armenians are interested in temporary migration

(This is a 9% increase in Armenia since 2008, but no such change in Azerbaijan or Georgia, although in 2009, all 3 Caucasus states saw a decrease in interest in temporary migration.)

Furthermore, 7% of Georgians, 17% of Azerbaijanis, and 26% of Armenians are interested in permanent migration.

(These rates in Azerbaijan and Georgia have remained somewhat stable, while Armenia has seen a 10% increase between 2009 and 2010).

So who are these people that want to leave?

Certainly in Armenia there is a trend toward desire to migrate.

Two-thirds of Yerevan residents are interested in temporary migration, regardless of gender. Nearly 60% of urban city and rural Armenians are interested as well. These are increases from 2008 and 2009 when about half of all Armenians wanted to temporarily migrate.

In Armenia, there are not major regional or gender differences in interest to migrate permanently.

In Azerbaijan, interest in migration varies year-to-year.

In Azerbaijan, interest in temporary migration is primarily a male interest, and rural females are the least likely to be interested in temporary migration.

Permanent migration is less popular in Azerbaijan, again especially amongst rural females.

In Georgia as well, interest in migration changes year-to-year, but overall interest in permanent migration is quite low.

02 Jul

Migration in the Caucasus

Based on an analysis of the 2010 Caucasus Barometer, I found that there are significant differences in interest in temporary and permanent migration in the three Caucasus Republics. All three countries have a pretty strong interest in migration, especially temporarily. This question is about “interest in” — not ability to migrate, however. And as there are many barriers to migration (visas, economic ability, finding work, etc.), this should not be taken as “intention to migrate,” merely interest.

Temporary Migration
With 59 percent of Armenians interested in temporary migration, of the three republics, Armenia is leading in this category. This may be due to a number of factors: established groups of migrants in Russia and the United States (among other places), relatively high unemployment, and an established remittance system. Who wants to migrate in Armenia? Lots of people! Only those in the lower economic categories are less likely to be interested in temporary migration. Moreoever, Yerevantsis are significantly less likely to be interested in temporary migration than rural Armenians or those living in regional cities. This may be because a lot of Yerevantsis have already left Armenia or because there has been a shift in internal migration where rural people are moving to Yerevan for work and educational opportunities.

Half of Azerbaijanis are interested in temporary migration. There are no patterns or significant differences in interest based on economic wellbeing, capital/rural cities/village, or gender.

Many Georgians (40%) are interested in temporary migration as well. Like Azerbaijan, there are no economic differences in interest, but rural residents are strongly more interested in temporary migration than capital or rural city residents are. Also, unlike Armenia or Azerbaijan, women in Georgia are more interested in temporary migration than men are.

Permanent Migration
A quarter of Armenians (26%) want to permanent migrate. Again, economic conditions likely cause this interest. Only those in the absolutely highest economic category are less interested in permanent migration than the vast majority of lower upper class, middle class, and lower class Armenians (in terms of their economic wellbeing). Interestingly, women are more interested in permanently migrating than men are.

Only 17 percent of Azerbaijanis state an interest in permanent migration. Again, economic differences played no role, but rural Azerbaijanis are significantly more interested in permanent migration than capital or regional urbanites. And like Armenia, women are more interested in permanent migration than men are.

Few Georgians (8%) want to permanently migrate. There are not any economic, regional, or gender differences for permanent migration.